Of the 32 states in the country, 12 presented an inflationary level above Banxico’s target.
At the beginning of this year, annual inflation in the country continued to send signals of “stability”, however, some states showed contrary trends in their price level.
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) grew 3.77% at an annual rate during the first half of January 2026.
Although this result meant breaking the streak of two fortnights with a slowdown, it also represented spinning since the first half of July 2024 a rate below 4%, that is, it is in the range of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which is 3% +/- one percentage point.
However, of the 32 states in Mexico, 12 presented annual inflation above the country’s monetary policy target, which symbolizes that the purchasing power of families in these states is lower than in the rest of the national territory.
Quintana Roo was the state with the highest inflationary level, of 4.90% in the first half of January of this year, achieving two consecutive months with this trend.
It was followed by Oaxaca (4.64%), Campeche (4.43%), Jalisco (4.40%), Mexico City (4.39%), Nayarit (4.28%), Aguascalientes (4.20%), San Luis Potosí (4.18%), Estado de México (4.16%), Michoacán (4.11%), Yucatán (4.06%) and Tamaulipas (4.05 percent).
Of this subnational group, the longest streaks with inflation above 4% were in San Luis Potosí (10 months) and Oaxaca (5 months).
At the other pole, the states with the lowest inflation – and which remained in Banxico’s range – were Tlaxcala (2.16%), Baja California (2.22%), Baja California Sur (2.36%),
Regarding inflation in the same period last year, 14 entities accelerated. The largest increases were observed in Mexico City with 1.19 percentage points (from 3.30 to 4.39%), Oaxaca with 0.94 points (from 3.70 to 4.64%) and the State of Mexico with 0.80 points (from 3.36 to 4.16 percent).
While the most pronounced reductions occurred in Baja California with -2.29 points (from 4.51 to 2.22%), Sinaloa with -1.27 points (from 3.81 to 2.54%) and Colima with -1.21 percentage points (from 4.78 to 3.57 percent).
Cautiously
For Banco Base, headline inflation in Mexico has remained below 4% since the first half of July 2024, but this should be taken with caution, as this “stability” comes from low non-core inflation, while the core component, which is the one that determines the trajectory of inflation in the medium and long term, it shows no clear signs of slowing down.
“Contrary to the non-core component, this inflation remains high and the last time it remained below 4% was from the first half of September 2024 to the first half of May 2025. Having said all of the above, it is important to remember that non-core inflation contains the elements with the most volatile prices and a rebound in this component would lead headline inflation to be above 4% again,” he says.
It adds that the latter is compounded by other risks that could contribute to greater inflationary pressures in Mexico, such as the 13% increase in the minimum wage, the imposition of tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries with which Mexico does not have a trade treaty and the additional boost in services inflation during the summer due to the World Cup.
In this context, the financial group explains that Banxico has not finished the fight against inflation and the risks of a rebound remain skewed to the upside.
“Considering an interest rate of 7.00% and that the inflation expectation for the next 12 months is 3.84%, the real ex ante rate stands at 3.04%; with this, the ex-ante real interest rate is below the upper range estimated by Banxico for the real neutral rate, between 1.8% and 3.6%, which implies that monetary policy is neutral,” says Banco Base.
Source: El Economista
