Today, frontal system number 7 will extend stationary over the north of the country. It will interact with a trough in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere and with the subtropical jet stream, causing a drop in temperature and strong wind gusts in the aforementioned region, as well as in northwestern Mexico, as well as heavy rains in Chihuahua and showers in Coahuila.
Meanwhile, the influx of moisture from the Caribbean Sea and the slow advance of tropical wave number 38 will generate very heavy rains in Quintana Roo and Yucatán, and heavy rains in Campeche. A low-pressure trough over the Sierra Madre Oriental, the flow of humid air from the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea in the southeast, south, and east of the country, as well as a cyclonic circulation aloft, which will weaken throughout the day, will cause heavy rains in Tabasco and Veracruz. Intervals of showers in Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas; and isolated rains in parts of San Luis Potosí.
A low-pressure area with the potential for cyclonic development off the coast of Mexico’s southern Pacific will maintain the likelihood of intense rainfall in Chiapas and Oaxaca; and very heavy rainfall in Guerrero, in addition to high waves along the coasts of these states.
The entry of humid air from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, low-pressure channels inland, and atmospheric instability over central Mexico will cause very heavy rainfall in Nayarit and Jalisco; heavy rainfall in Sinaloa, Durango, Colima, and Michoacán; intervals of showers in Puebla, Morelos, Mexico City, and the State of Mexico; and isolated rains in parts of Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Querétaro, and Zacatecas.
Intervals of showers and occasional heavy to intense downpours will be accompanied by lightning and possibly hail.
Rainfall forecast for today, October 16, 2025:
Very heavy with occasional intense downpours (75 to 150 mm): Oaxaca (Southern Highlands, Coast, and Isthmus regions) and Chiapas (Border, Highlands, and Soconusco regions).
Heavy with occasional very heavy downpours (50 to 75 mm): Nayarit (coast), Jalisco (coast), Guerrero (east and southeast), Yucatán (northeast), and Quintana Roo (north and east).
Showers with occasional heavy rain (25 to 50 mm): Sinaloa (south), Chihuahua (south and northeast), Durango (north and west), Colima (north and coast), Michoacán (coast), Veracruz (regions: Papaloapan, Los Tuxtlas, and Olmeca), Tabasco (west), and Campeche (south).
Showers with occasional heavy rain (5 to 25 mm): Coahuila (northwest), Nuevo León (center and south), Tamaulipas (south), State of Mexico (southwest), Mexico City (south), Morelos (north), and Puebla (regions: Tehuacán-Sierra Negra and Valle de Atlixco-Matamoros).
Scattered showers (0.1 to 5 mm): Baja California Sur, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Querétaro, Hidalgo, and Tlaxcala.
Heavy to intense rains could reduce visibility, raise river and stream levels, and cause ponding, landslides, and flooding.
Strong wind gusts could cause trees and billboards to fall.
Maximum temperature forecast for today, October 16, 2025:
Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40°C: Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, and Yucatán.
Maximum temperatures of 30 to 35°C: Baja California Sur, Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Durango, Zacatecas (north), San Luis Potosí (east), Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Puebla (north and southwest), Morelos (south), Guerrero, Chiapas, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, and Quintana Roo.
Minimum temperature forecast for today morning, October 16, 2025:
Minimum temperatures of -5 to 0°C with frost: mountainous areas of Baja California and Sonora, as well as mountainous areas of the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, and Puebla.
Minimum temperatures of 0 to 5°C: mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, and Veracruz; as well as mountainous areas of Jalisco and Colima.
Wind and wave forecast for today, October 16, 2025:
Winds of 15 to 25 km/h with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h: Gulf of California (north), Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Durango, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, and Chiapas.
Waves of 2.5 to 3.5 meters high: western coast of the Baja California Peninsula.
Waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters high: coasts of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas.
Source: contraparte
