Possible cyclone “Rick”, its current situation, and its probable trajectories

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At the moment, as a low-pressure zone, it has a 90% potential for cyclonic development and continues to move parallel to the Pacific coast; find out how he could follow his trajectory in the coming days

Mexico. – The low-pressure zone that could give rise to cyclone 17 of the season called “Rick”, continues to increase its cyclonic potential; at the moment it remains at 90 percent and everything indicates its inevitable activation. 

The system is located 385 kilometers south of Acapulco, Guerrero, with a slow movement towards the west-northwest and already generates intense rains of up to 150 millimeters in states such as Guerrero and Oaxaca.

According to the models of the National Meteorological Service, an organization that is expected today to promote a new conference to publicize more details about this system, they indicate that by Saturday, October 22, the Pacific could already have a new tropical storm that would continue to move from way parallel to the coasts. 

Other climate observing systems have marked three possible trajectories of the system once it is activated as a tropical cyclone; The National Hurricane Center of the United States, NOAA, Meteored.mx, among others, have highlighted the scenarios of the trajectory of the possible storm: 

1.- The first consists of an initial movement parallel to the coasts of the South Pacific, curving towards the north and northeast, approaching between Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, or Baja California Sur, due to an elongated anticyclonic circulation (dorsal) from the Caribbean.


2.- The second would be somewhat similar, but the Caribbean anticyclone stays in the Yucatan peninsula and the trough to the south of the USA combines, “pulling” the cyclone to enter between Guerrero, Michoacán, or Colima.
The third (less likely for now) is that it moves parallel to coasts towards open waters of the Pacific. Of these three, the least likely is the last, and the first two are disputed to keep one as the final one.

The system so far has presented a displacement very similar to the one that led “Pamela” to impact between Sinaloa and Nayarit, areas where it left significant economic losses in agriculture, roads, bridges, and housing, which were overcome by torrential rains. that generated considerable flooding.

So before any of the scenarios, we must be prepared, remember that the cyclone and hurricane season ends in the month of November, which implies that this or other systems could gain momentum in this period.

Mexico Daily Post